November 13, 2025

549 Rig Total

Donald P. Muth

Q4 2025 upstream spending underway?

Friday's (9.26.25) weekly U.S. onshore Active Rig Count improved by seven, led by oil development gaining six units. Natural gas activity declined by one. Miscellaneous drilling added two. Oil traders pushed WTI crude oil prices to close $3.04 higher than last Friday (9.19.25). Natural gas prices remained below $3.00/MBtu. First insight - this upstream activity uptick is annual delayed year-end capital spending. Economic growth is key to sustainable upstream development.


Strong U.S. Q2 2025 GDP data was revised upward to 3.8%, driven by consumer spending. U.S. inflation showed no surprise increase. Private sector U.S. employment is outpacing government job additions. Investors remain bullish, pushing U.S. equity markets to new highs. The annual U.S. government “shut-down play” starts again on Wednesday, October 1. Capital markets may rally with smaller government outlays if federal job/program reduction follows. 


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