SIPES Energy Blog

Presidents Day

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 18:15:26 GMT

NAPE EXPO this week!

NYMEX Commodity and NYSE equity markets were closed in observance of Presidents Day.

Regular NYMEX daily trading hours are from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. CST. Pre-trading hours are from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m., CST. Early trading on Presidents Day has natural gas trading around $3.00/Million Btu.

U.S. regional weather patterns are above freeze temperatures as annual heating season comes to a close on February 28 . The combination of warm weather and strong storage gas withdraw over the last four weeks have natural gas prices in the $3.00/Million Btu range. A total of 971 BCF of natural gas has been withdrawn from storage, a large but not alarming number. Current working supply is 130 BCF below five-year average and within the five-year average. For more details, refer to EIA report of 2.12.26: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). Markets will continue to watch U.S. weather patterns, economic news and activity concerning Iran this week. The next Iran-U.S. meeting is scheduled for February 17, 2026 in Geneva, Switzerland. Gas storage volumes for the week ending February 13 will be released Thursday, February 26.

2026 NAPE WEEK

February 18-20, George Brown Convention Center

Houston, TX

Upstream Energy celebrates its 2026 hallmark event in Houston, Texas with NAPE Summit Week, February 18-20. Attendance registration available online and on-site @ https://napeexpo.com/summit.

SIPES is hosting a unique “prospect-poster-forum-hall” featuring documented oil, gas opportunities and more. Contact Matt Boyce for more details: matt.boyce@epochconsultingllc.com

This report and other energy blogs may not represent views of individual members. Reports are the opinions of author, Energy Chairman, Donald P. Muth, Sr.

$6.00+ Natural Gas Price Days Away

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 17:45:49 GMT

Natural Gas Consumption is Breaking Records

Strong Canadian polar winds continue to stream across the U.S. Midwest and NE regions this week (12.8 through 12.12) bringing more freezing temperatures and snow. Heating and electricity demand is soaring. Many metropolitan areas will be unable to meet affordable electricity as peak usage brings higher rate prices. Natural gas prices (HH) will likely exceed $6.00 / Million Btu this week. Why?

Poor climate energy policies administrated on state and national levels during the Covid years (2021-2024) restricted natural gas electric plant and pipeline construction in favor of solar, wind and renewable power development. Seasonal cold weather and economic growth require affordable, sustainable and scalable electric-power generation capacity.

Natural gas consumption is breaking records in 2025 from robust LNG exports, AI/data center electric demand growth and winter weather. Restricted natural gas deliverability and electric generation capacity are driving natural gas prices upward. More natural gas-fired electric generation plants are required along with more pipelines connecting producers to consumers.

Energy policies need to incentivize natural gas pipeline buildout and gas-fired power generation. Capital investment and policy decision changes are underway. The Trump Administration started such efforts in January 2025. Slow to respond, New York State’s Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) finally approved permits for Williams’ Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) natural gas pipeline recently (November 7, 2025). The Williams pipeline is New York state’s first new gas pipeline in over a decade. The NESE is only 24 miles long. However, NYC’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani opposes fossil fuel development of all types. Chicago and Illinois are in a similar position needing affordable electric to meet residential, business and data demand. A very cold and expensive December is here for the Midwest and Northeastern United States.

$5 Natural Gas is Here!

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 12:39:10 GMT

Natural Gas Consumption is Breaking Records

Winter storms, Bellamy during Thanksgiving, and now Chan (Dec. 1 -3), have brought heavy snow and freezing temperatures to much of the U.S. Natural gas consumption is breaking records in 2025 from robust LNG exports and AI/data center electric demand fueled by natural gas power plants. The start of heating season (November 1 ^st ) has seen natural gas prices soar. We’re at $5.00/ Million Btu (Henry Hub), a value not seen since December 2022. Natural gas prices are 66% higher above pre-heating season prices ($3.00 to $5.00). Freeze temperatures and deliverability are determining current natural gas prices.

Upstream capital is funding natural gas development. A gas drilling boom is underway. Baker-Hughes reported 130 onshore rigs operating in U.S. gas basins on Wednesday (11.26.25). The Friday weekly drilling report was published on Wednesday due to the U.S. holiday. Overall, upstream drilling activity declined by 10 drilling units during Thanksgiving week. Oil development/drilling was a casualty, having lost 12 rigs the previous week. Gas activity gained three units from 127 and miscellaneous drilling lost one. WTI crude oil prices below $60/bbl are unattractive for most U.S. development programs.

Look for natural gas drilling to reach 140 active rigs in the coming weeks. Pipe, equipment and services may become tight as upstream rushes to secure limited end-of-year inventory.

Rig count at 549

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 17:54:49 GMT

U.S. Government is open for business

Expect Higher Natural Gas Prices

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 12:48:28 GMT

First Impactful Winter weather of the Season

Natural Gas Testing $4.50 Price Ceiling

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 17:07:47 GMT

drilling Boom Underway

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549 Rig Count Starts Q4

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 20:44:20 GMT

...along with u.s. government shutdown

U.S. Onshore Active Weekly Total Rig count remains at 549, (10.3.25). Q4 starts with product pricing volatility. WTI crude oil lost $4.84 over the week to close @ $60.88/Bbl. Natural gas (HH) posted a $.48 gain over the same period to $3.32/Million Btu.

Negativity hit WTI crude oil prices the week ending Friday, October 3.

The U.S. Federal government shutdown (10.1.25) impacts short-term crude oil demand. No authorized funding and no buying of goods and services by the federal government which includes petroleum products. No government released jobs report was available this first Friday of the month. Will traders take no “official” jobs report as no jobs created? However, investors leaned into larger Fed-rate cut 'hope' and pushed equity markets to new highs during the week.

The massive fire at Chevron's El Segundo refinery (Los Angeles, CA) has taken multiple processing units off line which means less crude oil intake demand. U.S. pump prices may rise with less gasoline processing capacity. The last negative item is seasonal. October starts the slow Q4 demand period for crude oil trades. The combined negative news provided no buying support for WTI oil prices on Friday.

Watch natural gas prices for more upward movement this week of October 6. A price test of $3.50 / Million Btu is underway. Price volatility is present when any U.S. LNG terminal experiences operation or maintenance interruptions including Gulf of America hurricanes. August and September set U.S. LNG export records as per preliminary data by financial firm LSEG with September averaging about 15.3 BCFGPD! Actual DOE volumes are released to the public two months later. August DOE LNG volumes to be released about October 24.

This blog is not investment advice. Perform your own research and viewpoints. Catch more energy reports on SIPES National Website: https://www.sipes.org/

549 Rig Total

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 20:43:30 GMT

Q4 2025 upstream spending underway?

Friday's (9.26.25) weekly U.S. onshore Active Rig Count improved by seven, led by oil development gaining six units. Natural gas activity declined by one. Miscellaneous drilling added two. Oil traders pushed WTI crude oil prices to close $3.04 higher than last Friday (9.19.25). Natural gas prices remained below $3.00/MBtu. First insight - this upstream activity uptick is annual delayed year-end capital spending. Economic growth is key to sustainable upstream development.

Strong U.S. Q2 2025 GDP data was revised upward to 3.8%, driven by consumer spending. U.S. inflation showed no surprise increase. Private sector U.S. employment is outpacing government job additions. Investors remain bullish, pushing U.S. equity markets to new highs. The annual U.S. government “shut-down play” starts again on Wednesday, October 1. Capital markets may rally with smaller government outlays if federal job/program reduction follows.

542 Total Rig Count

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 20:40:15 GMT

And?...

Friday's weekly (9.19.25) overall U.S. Onshore Active Rig Count improved by three. Gas activity remained flat @ 118 units. Natural gas prices (HH) closed at $2.89 M/Btu and WTI crude oil at $62.68/Bbl. Focus is on U.S. economy to grow and increase demand. Oil and natural gas markets remain well supplied.

U.S. Federal Reserve reduced prime borrowing costs by .25% on 9.17.25 as a stimulus for economic growth; more rate reductions forthcoming. Employment remains soft. Conoco-Phillips and Chevron are moving forward with a 20-25% world-wide workforce reduction into 2026. Oil service companies have fewer active clients. Each U.S. rig addition is important!

SCOTUS started brief proceeding on Friday, 9.19.25, concerning tariff trade policy. Three separate challenges concerning use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 will be decided. Arguments start on November 5. Economic stakes are high. The decision will determine if the U.S. Executive Branch has power to enforce reciprocal trade policies and more.

Informative SCOTUS blog by Amy Howe: https://lnkd.in/gE2nFgQh

Natural gas prices are above $4/M Btu

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 11:48:41 GMT

Strong demand for natural gas

Natural gas futures (HH) surged above the $4.00/Million Btu price bench with the onset of colder weather during the week of October 27 to close at $4.12 on Friday (10.31.25). The 25% price increase in less than a week indicates strong demand for natural gas. Annual “heating season” started November 1 and continues to February 28. Monday’s (11.3.25) gas contract trades above $4.25 indicates prices are continuing upward to test $4.50/Million Btu soon.

Friday's (10.31.25) weekly Active U.S. Onshore Total Rig Count lost four to close at 546. Oil development decreased by six units, natural gas activity gained four and miscellaneous lost two. The U.S. government will likely remain closed until after November 4th elections. Expect market volatility in the week as election results are tallied.

Rig Count Gains Two Units

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 11:45:03 GMT

Rig Count Now at 550

Friday's weekly (10.24.25) onshore U.S. ACTIVE RIG COUNT TOTAL posted a gain of two units. A +$4.00 per barrel increase in WTI crude oil prices across Thursday and Friday is good news for upstream energy. Natural gas (HH) closed at $3.30/Million Btu; still trying to break a $3.50 resistance price.

U.S. DOE announced a one-million-barrel refill oil purchase plan for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an unexpected commercial crude oil inventory drawdown (running 4% below five-year average for this time of year) and investors’ confidence in 2026 economic growth buoyed oil prices this week. The DJI average closed at $47,207.12, an all-time high with Friday's (10.24.25) one-day jump +$472.51.

SCOTUS tariff policy deliberation along with U.S. government shutdown remain. September CPI data was “cooler” than expected. SCOTUS may provide POTUS emergency power as Congress fails to serve its constitutional role.

Weather temperatures dipped during the weekend and natural gas (HH) prices are edging toward $3.50/Million Btu price on Monday (10.27.25). DJI Average looking to post another closing high, too!

547 Rig Count 10.10.25

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 13:25:01 GMT

WTI Drops below $60 on Friday 10.10.15

Friday's weekly (10.10.25) U.S. onshore Active Rig Count total fell to 547. Oil development lost four units and gas basin activity gained two. Asset price volatility is the news.

WTI crude oil closed @ $58.90/Bbl. Natural gas (HH) followed crude oil prices downward to $3.11/Million Btu. The DJI Average lost -878.82 points, a 1.90% one-day decline. Crude oil and natural gas prices were climbing upward midweek before collapsing Friday morning.

Profit taking, economic uncertainty and fatigue may summarize some of today's events. The U.S. government remains closed. September Fed meeting minutes were released expressing negative viewpoints on additional interest rate reductions. Gold topped over $4,000/ounce this week. The U.S. provided a $20 billion dollar currency intervention to support Argentina's peso. The Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP), a major West Texas natural gas pipeline closed for maintenance resulting in negative Waha gas pricing of $8.50 /Million Btu for some operators. Additional China tariffs may be imposed. The negative news/fatigue likely persuaded many investors to sell and go home for the weekend. However, a buying opportunity was present for the brave.

No Where. Rig Count at 548

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 17:40:46 GMT

On shore Rig Count Stagnant at 548

Friday's (10.17.25) weekly U.S. onshore total Rig Count is stagnant at 548. Low product prices are the narrative. WTI crude oil remained below $59.00 for the last week. Ouch! Natural gas (HH) struggled to maintain $3.00 / Million Btu. Current prices are deflationary.

Q4 will be hard on upstream and service company earnings. LNG exports remain robust. Natural gas (HH) price movement will follow temperature oscillations until much colder weather arrives.

The DJI average closed the week at $46,190.61. Investors appear confident of further U.S. Fed rate cuts and 2026 economic growth. More to say next week on forthcoming U.S. government-RIF action, SCOTUS rulings and the economy. Look at equity markets for potential “buy signals” - especially in midstream.

Not going to make it...

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:39:18 GMT

Onshore rig count at 539

Friday's weekly (9.12.25) Active Onshore U.S. Rig Count Total improved by two. Oil basins gained. Gas development remained flat at 118 rigs, below 120 – a number indicating early start of a trackable gas boom. WTI crude oil prices remain suppressed. Natural gas (HH) prices declined slightly as weekly national weather temperatures warmed. A difference of $.12- $.15 /MBtu correlates closely with the first 1 BCFGPD demand change, up or down. More analysis needed on this correlation. LNG terminal natural gas feedstock uptake moves prices more than weather.

U.S. onshore rig utilization is dominated by oil development. An additional +40 rigs need contracts to reach a 580 total goal in Q4-25 and beyond. Current WTI oil prices are insufficient to stimulate drilling. Natural gas drilling alone will not carry the rig count to 580 even if Henry Hub prices improve rapidly by $.50 - $ .75 M/Btu during “heating season”. (Heating season is November 1 through Feb. 28 of each year.) The last time we saw 166 active rigs in gas basins was September 9, 2022 when Henry Hub contract futures were $8.31 /MBtu. I remain bullish on natural gas and we're not making '580' rig count for a while.

U.S. Active Onshore Rig Count at 537

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 14:38:15 GMT

gas drilling falls below 120 units

Friday's (9.5.25) active U.S. Onshore Rig count posted a second-week loss in gas basin drilling to 118. An oncoming gas boom is still projected even with gas drilling falling below 120 units from its two-year peak of 124 on August 1st. Last time gas activity was over 124 units was August 4, 2023. Oil development added two rigs.

WTI crude oil prices dropped after Friday's dismal August 2025 monthly employment number of 22,000 new jobs. Crude traders show declining confidence in U.S. economic activity and expect lower future oil demand. The U.S. Fed needs to lower borrowing/interest rates in each of the next several quarters.

Henry Hub natural gas prices remained over $3.00 /MBtu with the unusual cooler to near freeze temperature forecast for the U.S. Midwest region this September 8th week. LNG exports are setting record shipments as per attached OilPrice.com article: https://lnkd.in/g6NDvfS2

U.S. Onshore Rig Count for 8.22.25

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:37:06 GMT

U.S. Rig Count level at 538

Friday's U.S. weekly onshore Active Rig Count total (8.22.25) is 'level' at 538 units.

Gas basin development remains above 121 rigs for the 5th week. HH natural gas pricing decreased +$.12/MBtu attributed to Freeport LNG intake reduction of about 1 BCFGPD since Sunday (8.17.25). Freeport is now running at seasonal average for the new week. Cooler U.S. weather also played a small role in weaker natural gas demand/prices.

Annual "heating season" (Nov. 1 thru February 28) is still 10 weeks away with its natural gas demand surge. Expect 'flat' drilling activity until Q4. All eyes will be on U.S. LNG exports and consumption.

U.S. Natural Gas Production continues Record Pace in 2025

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 14:31:45 GMT

short term energy outlook

The EIA released its STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook) in August 2025 reporting record U.S. natural gas and crude-oil production. Soaring natural gas production is suppressing Henry Hub natural gas prices at around $3.00/Mbtu. However, the oncoming Q4 heating season will change supply/demand relationships with domestic consumption and LNG export increases.

U.S. Natural gas drilling continues upward climb

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 14:29:21 GMT

Friday's weekly (8.1.25) Active U.S. Drilling count posted another week of improved natural gas development/spending. Operators added two more units to reach 124 gas rigs. Strong international LNG demand remains the driving force for domestic natural gas development.

Friday's (8.1.25) U.S. Total Rig Count turned over and downward to 540 units. Operators are continuing to trim oil basin drilling (-5 in last week) in favor of natural gas development (+2 in last week). WTI crude oil prices posted a slight price increase with HH natural gas pricing about the same. Expect continued U.S. natural gas investment.

The week's news was economic data. U.S. GDP posted 3% Q2 gain on Wednesday morning (7.30.25) followed by afternoon's no interest rate reduction statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. July jobs report released Friday (8.1.25) was disappointingly weak at 73,000 new hires. Investors reacted with an equity sell-off. DJI Average lost -542.40 points at market close (8.1.25).

U.S. Upstream Knocking on Q4-2025 Gas Boom's Door!

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:27:44 GMT

U.S Upstream Knocking on Q4-2025 Gas Boom's Door!

Friday's weekly U.S. Active Rig Count (7.25.25) posted continued growth in natural gas basin drilling @ 122 units. HH natural gas pricing remains above $3.00 / Million Btu with annual “cooling season” upon us. Expectations are for higher natural gas pricing during Q4 heating months. Soaring LNG exports and electricity demand from AI/data centers are applying strong upward pressure on natural gas consumption above normal cooling/heating season usage. Natural gas-fired electric power plant build-out is behind schedule as electricity prices increase. We're in an affordable electricity crisis.

This author classifies a natural gas drilling boom sustainable with +120 units over a measurable period as per constructed chart. U.S. drillers just "knocked the door" this week. Capital spending for natural gas development appears underway. Let's watch future drilling activity!

U.S Energy update - 25 July 2025

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 14:21:39 GMT

U.S. Active Rig Count @ 542...Good news is Masked in total

Friday's (7.25.25) U.S. total rig count dropped by two units from the previous week. WTI crude oil prices closed $2.18/barrel lower and HH natural gas fell $.46/Million Btu from last Friday (7.18.25).

The total downward trend in U.S. drilling has been dominated by rig loss in oil basins since April 4, 2025. However, not visible in the “Total Rig Count” number has been an increase in natural gas drilling rigs since May 23, 2025 when the number bottomed at 98. Friday's (7.25.25) gas rig number was 122.