Friday's weekly (9.12.25) Active Onshore U.S. Rig Count Total improved by two. Oil basins gained. Gas development remained flat at 118 rigs, below 120 – a number indicating early start of a trackable gas boom. WTI crude oil prices remain suppressed. Natural gas (HH) prices declined slightly as weekly national weather temperatures warmed. A difference of $.12- $.15 /MBtu correlates closely with the first 1 BCFGPD demand change, up or down. More analysis needed on this correlation. LNG terminal natural gas feedstock uptake moves prices more than weather.
 
U.S. onshore rig utilization is dominated by oil development. An additional +40 rigs need contracts to reach a 580 total goal in Q4-25 and beyond. Current WTI oil prices are insufficient to stimulate drilling. Natural gas drilling alone will not carry the rig count to 580 even if Henry Hub prices improve rapidly by $.50 - $ .75 M/Btu during “heating season”. (Heating season is November 1 through Feb. 28 of each year.) The last time we saw 166 active rigs in gas basins was September 9, 2022 when Henry Hub contract futures were $8.31 /MBtu. I remain bullish on natural gas and we're not making '580' rig count for a while.